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Free, publicly-accessible full text available December 15, 2025
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Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) quantifies the amount of warming resulting from a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 forcing. Despite recent advancements in climate simulation capabilities and global observations, there remains large uncertainty on the degree of future warming. To help alleviate this uncertainty, past climates provide a valuable insight into how the Earth will respond to elevated atmospheric CO2. However, there is evidence to suggest that ECS is dependent on background climate warmth, which may interfere with the direct utilization of paleo-ECS to understand present-day ECS. Thus, it is important that a range of different climate states are considered to better understand the factors modulating the relationship between CO2 and temperature. In this study, we focus on three time intervals: the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (3.3 – 3.0 Ma), the mid-Miocene (16.75 – 14.5 Ma), and the early Eocene (~50 Ma), in order to sample ECS from Cenozoic coolhouse to hothouse climates. Here, we combine the Bayesian framework of constraining the ECS and its uncertainty with several published methods to estimate the global mean surface temperature (GMST) from sparse proxy records. This framework utilizes an emergent constraint between the simulated GMST changes and climate sensitivities across the model ensemble. For each time interval, we employ a combination of parametric and non-parametric functions, coupled with a probabilistic approach to derive a refined estimate. Preliminary results for the Pliocene indicate a GMST reconstruction of approximately 19.3°C, which is higher than previous estimates that were derived using only marine records. Using this estimate, we calculate an ECS that is also higher than previously published values, especially due to the inclusion of high-latitude terrestrial temperature records into our estimates. Intriguingly, using the consistent methodology, our calculated ECS for the early Eocene is lower than that of the mid-Pliocene. This result does not support an amplified ECS in hothouse climate, and points to a potentially important role of ice albedo feedback in amplifying the ECS in coolhouse climate. Ongoing work will apply the same methodology to the mid-Miocene and further investigate the source for the estimated ECS state dependency between these climate intervals.more » « less
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De_Vita, R; Espinal, X; Laycock, P; Shadura, O (Ed.)The IceCube Neutrino Observatory is a cubic kilometer neutrino telescope located at the geographic South Pole. Understanding detector systematic effects is a continuous process. This requires the Monte Carlo simulation to be updated periodically to quantify potential changes and improvements in science results with more detailed modeling of the systematic effects. IceCube’s largest systematic effect comes from the optical properties of the ice the detector is embedded in. Over the last few years there have been considerable improvements in the understanding of the ice, which require a significant processing campaign to update the simulation. IceCube normally stores the results in a central storage system at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, but it ran out of disk space in 2022. The Prototype National Research Platform (PNRP) project thus offered to provide both GPU compute and storage capacity to IceCube in support of this activity. The storage access was provided via XRootD-based OSDF Origins, a first for IceCube computing. We report on the overall experience using PNRP resources, with both successes and pain points.more » « less
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We introduce a new end-to-end software environment that enables experimentation with using SciTokens for capability-based authorization in scientific computing. This set of interconnected Docker containers enables science projects to gain experience with the SciTokens model prior to adoption. It is a product of our SciAuth project, which supports the adoption of the SciTokens model through community engagement, support for coordinated adoption of community standards, assistance with software integration, security analysis and threat modeling, training, and workforce development.more » « less
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